Market analysis of the glass industry in the first quarter of 2017 and trend forecast in the second quarter
after experiencing the hot market in 2016, the market has been dominated by high-level shock consolidation since this year, showing the traditional characteristics of off-season. In the first quarter of 2017, the overall performance of the float glass industry was as follows: "the production capacity is still high, the cost is rational, the price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market confidence is average." Manufacturers' evaluation of the market trend in the first quarter is better than that of traders and processing enterprises
affected by the extension of downstream markets, there are still some rush orders in the southern market before the Spring Festival, and the inventories of manufacturers in other regions are also significantly low. This situation makes manufacturers and traders have confidence in the market trend after the Spring Festival. The sales preferential policies adopted by manufacturing enterprises are less than those of the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, with the promotion of replenishment of inventories by traders and processing enterprises, market prices showed a slight upward trend. After that, the high price in the South China market fell, which had a certain impact on other regions, and the market price and market confidence fell slightly. At the end of March, prices rose slightly due to market expectations such as the reduction of production capacity in South China
1 the macro is OK. In the month of real estate regulation, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) reached 4137.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last year. Among them, the spatial distance deviation between connecting columns of 3997.5 billion yuan completed by local projects was very small, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of last year, the fastest since last June. However, the planned total investment growth rate of new projects continued to fall, down 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting that the investment growth momentum is still insufficient
at the fifth session of the 12th National People's Congress on March 5, 2017, Premier Li Keqiang made a government work report, proposing that "we should adhere to the residential nature of housing and implement the main body of local government. We should strengthen the classified regulation of the real estate market. Cities under great pressure of rising house prices should reasonably increase residential land, standardize the development, sales, intermediary and other behaviors, and curb the rapid rise of house prices in hot cities."
the property market regulation and control policies were introduced intensively and the regional linkage was enhanced. Since the end of September 2016, a total of more than 40 cities above prefecture level and some counties and cities have issued regulation and tightening policies, of which more than 30 cities (counties and cities) have issued policies in this round, including 15 cities above prefecture level and 2 counties and cities. Overall, this round of policies is based on the central city, and the surrounding third and fourth tier cities are tightened. Under the influence of follow-up policies, due to the differences in the cycle of coordinated development within different urban agglomerations and the tightness between cities, the performance of regulatory policies is also different
chart 1: since 2016, the policy has tightened the distribution of cities
according to preliminary statistics, in the first quarter of 2017, the average monthly trading volume of 50 representative cities' commercial housing markets was about 26.5 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of about 15%, but from the historical transaction data, it is still at a relatively high level
in 2017, the national real estate development investment was 985.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 8.9%, and the growth rate was 2 percentage points higher than that of last year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6229.5 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and the growth rate was the same as that of last year. The newly started housing area was 172.38 million square meters, an increase of 10.4%, and the growth rate increased by 2.3 percentage points. The completed housing area was 161.41 million square meters, an increase of 15.8%, and the growth rate increased by 9.7 percentage points. The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 23.74 million square meters, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, and a decrease of 3.4% for the whole year last year. The sales area of commercial housing was 140.54 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, 2.6 percentage points higher than that of last year. At the end of February, the area of commercial housing for sale was 705.55 million square meters, an increase of 10.15 million square meters over the end of last year
2 high production capacity and increased output
the float glass industry is an industry with strong cyclical fluctuations and is greatly affected by the downstream real estate market. In recent years, with several large-scale centralized development of the real estate market, the overall scale and production capacity of float glass have been developed and improved to varying degrees
by the end of the first quarter, China had 359 float glass production lines, with a total production scale of 1.286 billion heavy containers, an increase of 43million heavy containers year on year; At present, there are 236 float glass production lines in production, with a production capacity of 925million heavy containers, an increase of 72million heavy containers over the same period last year; The capacity utilization rate was 72.23%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.73%. The increase in glass production capacity in the first quarter of this year was mainly affected by the large number of resumed production of cold repair production lines since last year. Under the influence of the sharp rise in the price of building materials, 22 production lines had to shut down and cut off the power supply immediately in case of abnormal conditions during the cold repair last year, report to the laboratory director and the manufacturer for maintenance, do not disassemble the machine and resume production, and restore the annual production capacity of 81million heavy containers. Last year, 9 new production lines were put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 43million heavy containers; 15 cold repair and shutdown production lines, reducing the annual production capacity by 51million heavy containers. Net increase of annual production capacity of 73million heavy containers
chart 2: statistical table of float glass production lines since 2006
since the first quarter of this year, the increase and decrease of float glass production capacity have not changed much. A total of 5 production lines were shut down for cold repair, reducing the production capacity of 18 million heavy containers; One float glass production line was restored to production after cold repair, with an annual production capacity of 03million heavy containers restored; Two new production lines will be built, with an annual production capacity of 10million heavy containers
according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2017, China's production enterprises above Designated Size produced 129million heavy cases of flat glass, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. The growth rate increased by 7.6 percentage points compared with the same period in 2016, and decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the month in 2016. Last year, the cumulative production of the whole year was 774million heavy containers, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%
chart 3: capacity and capacity utilization rate of the glass industry at the end of the first quarter, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 72.33%, up 3.73% year on year. The production capacity in process was 930.24 million heavy containers, an increase of 77.22 million heavy containers compared with last year. Excluding a certain number of production lines in the float glass industry that do not have recovery capacity in the short term, the adjusted capacity utilization rate of float glass was 87.11%, up 4.11% year on year
3 the price fluctuated and the confidence was general.
reviewing the price trend in the first quarter, it was not in line with the previous expectations. Since the fourth quarter of last year, affected by the year-end rush demand of the real estate market, the spot price of glass has shown the characteristics of not being light in the off-season, the price is hovering at a high level, and the inventory of production enterprises, traders and processing enterprises is at a relatively low level. This also gives the manufacturing enterprises some confidence support in the marketing strategy. In January this year, most glass production enterprises were optimistic about the later stage and actively supported prices. Even before the Spring Festival, manufacturers rarely take preferential measures to give traders the opportunity to stock up and stock up. At the same time, the inventory of production enterprises rose earlier than the same period last year
chart 4: price trend of float white glass since 2016 after the Spring Festival, according to the usual practice, manufacturers have taken measures to raise prices slightly to create a market atmosphere. Under the background of low inventory, traders are more willing to stock up and replenish inventory. After the resumption of production, processing enterprises also increase inventory one after another. During the Spring Festival, the production enterprises increased their inventory consumption faster
there are other factors in the price increase, which affect the price increase plan of later production enterprises. The price difference between South China and the surrounding markets is too high due to the continuous rise in prices since last year. The glass in Central China, as well as the glass in Northeast China and Shahe region can be easily transported to Guangzhou and other regions. After the Spring Festival, the inflow increased significantly, resulting in a sharp decrease in the sales speed of local production enterprises and a loss of balance between production and sales. In particular, the high inventory of the two large manufacturers has seriously affected the normal cash flow of the production enterprises. For this reason, manufacturers in South China have cut prices for three consecutive times, with a cumulative range of more than 120 yuan. It effectively prevented the entry of glass from other cities and stabilized the market price in South China
chart 5: Statistics of price trends in various regions since 2016
while the price in South China has been significantly adjusted, which has a greater impact on the markets in central and East China. In addition, after the first round of inventory replenishment by traders and processing enterprises, the consumption rate slowed down, and the overall market price showed a high and volatile pattern from mid February to the end of March, which also affected the market confidence
another factor affecting the spot price is the high inventory strategy of some manufacturers. Before and after the Spring Festival in Shahe area, most manufacturers have issued certain preferential strategies to attract traders' inventory. Some manufacturers are optimistic about the market in the later stage, and the margin of preference is far less than that of other manufacturers. For a period of time after the Spring Festival, the inventory of other manufacturers decreased rapidly, while the inventory of some manufacturers remained high, which had a certain suppressive effect on the later market price
in addition, it refers to the changes of new capacity and cold repair and resumption of production in key areas. It is obvious that the production capacity changes in Hubei and Shahe regions will have an impact on the originally contradictory market prices
chart 6: trend indicators of glass industry since 2016
on March 31, 2017, China's glass composite index was 1064.32 points, up 193.44 points year on year; China glass price index was 1070.65 points, up 203.45 points year-on-year; China Glass confidence index was 1038.99 points, up 153.38 points year-on-year. The year-on-year growth of price indicators and comprehensive indicators increased significantly, but the market confidence indicators dropped significantly, indicating that the market confidence has begun to be cautious
4 the price of raw materials has been adjusted at different steps.
since the fourth quarter of last year, glass production costs have risen rapidly, Once up "More than the increase in the spot price of glass. Especially before the Spring Festival this year, the prices of soda ash and other products were still soaring, which put a lot of pressure on the glass manufacturers in the off-season.
chart 7: Statistics on the prices of soda ash and coal
the rise in the price of soda ash is mainly due to the following factors: first, the increase in the cold repair and production lines of glass manufacturers since last year has directly stimulated the consumption demand for soda ash. Under soda ash The performance of other tourism industries is not satisfactory. Second, the export volume remains at a normal level, which will boost the price of domestic soda ash. Simply speaking from the market price, the export price did not fluctuate significantly, but only reduced the supply in the domestic market. Third, the quantity of imported alkali is limited, which cannot have a certain impact on the domestic price. Since last year, some glass manufacturers have imported natural soda from the United States, but the quantity is limited. Fourth, the price of coal used in soda ash has risen to a certain extent, boosting the cost of soda ash production enterprises. Fifthly, environmental protection factors have affected the operating rate of some soda ash manufacturers, especially in the fourth quarter of last year. Sixth, due to road and railway transportation, the products of Qinghai soda plant could not be transported to the mainland market on time
at the same time, there are also factors for soda ash production enterprises to jointly raise prices. As a result, the price of soda ash has risen from about 1600 yuan in a short time, with an increase of more than 900 yuan, and more than 1000 yuan in some regions
the price of soda ash rose sharply after the fourth quarter, which had a great impact on glass manufacturers in the off-season. On the one hand, we should maintain normal